Earnings · resolved market
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x962a951afed20b431e6de9a3b6449a3bbb37ed0aca0bd4291c16683dfb55ba0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 1,850$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.62 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 919.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 434.47$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed Yes | 75c | 400.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 387.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 15c | 376.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed No | 14c | 325.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 325.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 21c | 299.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 13c | 294.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 22c | 280.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 72c | 270.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 26c | 247.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 24c | 226.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 24c | 169.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 144.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 72c | 138.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 13c | 110.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 74c | 106.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…bf95backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…b971backed No | 17c | 86.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…6510backed No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 25c | 51.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…92febacked Yes | 74c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…09d4backed Yes | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…9669backed Yes | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…1d13backed Yes | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…efa7backed Yes | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…7c71backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…fd7bbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…3658backed Yes | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…f91dbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed Yes | 73c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.