Earnings · resolved market
Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1d8c2d70737dbcf021571a25ae67e7d982008eb76d8485f2caa3e9a72e9a996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 23c | 1,776$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.29 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,216$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.14 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 639.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 18c | 499.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 79c | 413.25$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…4fe9backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 316.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 24c | 282.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 244.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 75c | 199.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 76c | 198.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 183.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 14c | 161.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 16c | 152.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 72c | 138.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 77c | 123.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed No | 23c | 109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a1…90bfbacked No | 29c | 103.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 22c | 101.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 80c | 101.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…2ca9backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 15c | 99.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 71c | 93.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 88.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…a876backed No | 29c | 84.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…84a2backed No | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…ee20backed Yes | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 76c | 65.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 72c | 57.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…e0fcbacked Yes | 73c | 57.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 76c | 54.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…0ab2backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 74c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…f1e5backed No | 29c | 43.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 28c | 39.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5b…e666backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.