Movies · resolved market
Will the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 be Strong or Smart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bcc87902241ab0ffcbe9eeb3668c51bcdb218e157b1f8390a639272c54d2def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Strongof Strong, Smart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Smart | 9c | 2,000$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Smart | 17c | 1,300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Strong | 76c | 1,201$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.09 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…ae4bbacked Smart | 12c | 925.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Smart | 10c | 715.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Smart | 4c | 658$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Smart | 9c | 605$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Smart | 10c | 587.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…971abacked Smart | 4c | 574$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Smart | 7c | 570.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Strong | 79c | 562.48$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…685dbacked Smart | 19c | 514.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…cbdbbacked Smart | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Smart | 5c | 470.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Smart | 7c | 431.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Smart | 7c | 407.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…9b74backed Smart | 15c | 402.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809d…c03dbacked Smart | 8c | 366.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed Smart | 16c | 351$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Smart | 11c | 320.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Smart | 19c | 317.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Smart | 8c | 297$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…bc91backed Smart | 35c | 286.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…767bbacked Smart | 11c | 260.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…1f38backed Smart | 19c | 258.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…5396backed Smart | 17c | 235.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…7f61backed Smart | 5c | 231.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…0569backed Smart | 19c | 215.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…9c23backed Smart | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…bf66backed Smart | 33c | 155.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…c07ebacked Strong | 79c | 152.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Smart | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…8a8dbacked Smart | 15c | 144.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…52bbbacked Smart | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Smart | 15c | 136.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Smart | 11c | 119.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…64e1backed Smart | 17c | 117.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Smart | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Smart | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d71…6c23backed Strong | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Smart | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…90ffbacked Smart | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed Smart | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Smart | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…cc36backed Smart | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Smart | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8207…7edbbacked Smart | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…aba5backed Strong | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…9adcbacked Smart | 17c | 86.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…2546backed Smart | 40c | 68.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Strong | 77c | 67.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Strong | 73c | 62.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…6493backed Smart | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…407dbacked Smart | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Smart | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Strong | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Strong | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.