Earnings · resolved market
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71573c097b3b0be64ff26c940174f4795e1a5467315d8d3645ddb37f2d8830ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 10c | 1,110$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 952$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…aefabacked No | 16c | 649.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 16c | 587$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 11c | 445.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 399.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 16c | 378.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 349.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 177.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…a8e6backed No | 20c | 150.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…bf95backed No | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…7c0abacked No | 14c | 123.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 15c | 123.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a5…260dbacked No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.