Music · resolved market
Will Drake donate to MrBeast's Team Water by August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e5760caf2d9baa9c86ede9e5852ef3f88da890a5de3a5e8ddc64da0079b904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 52c | 1,991$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 1,933$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 747.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 609.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed Yes | 2c | 528.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 5c | 460$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 47c | 215.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Yes | 40c | 189$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 162.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 149.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 14c | 147.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 121.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…ab52backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…0a92backed No | 67c | 111$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 105.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…1e4cbacked Yes | 15c | 98.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 56c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 45c | 78.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 48c | 72.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 41c | 69.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…f79fbacked Yes | 47c | 47.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe060…60cbbacked Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…b83fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.