Us Politics · resolved market
Panick in the White House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4db4c3040db0fed37a6844993782fc9bc8c803d8084c588acf234d3f853cd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…1015backed Yes | 8c | 3,699$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3d…6bf6backed Yes | 8c | 3,361$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…2052backed Yes | 9c | 3,041$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Yes | 2c | 3,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,361$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,739$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,544$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,444$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 9c | 1,155$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.32 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…106bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…fec1backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 865.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 3c | 842$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 6c | 800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 788.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 14c | 729.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 2c | 598.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…e413backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 555$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 526$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 4c | 454$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 447.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 439.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…68d3backed Yes | 7c | 420.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 292.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…46cebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 250.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 8c | 142.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 21c | 90.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…657cbacked Yes | 18c | 75.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.