Tweets · resolved market
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60cd968f90eb7d268b8c904ff5efe4d365251a3e36132bf1d4ba0a252079067a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 0c | 15,306$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 7c | 3,461$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Yes | 1c | 1,158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 19c | 897.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 13c | 688.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 3c | 500.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 16cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb0…e79abacked Yes | 25c | 448.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…fbc5backed Yes | 11c | 299$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…0f78backed Yes | 15c | 298.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…f51abacked Yes | 22c | 244.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…bb66backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 186.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…0370backed Yes | 12c | 181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked No | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…6ae6backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…24a6backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…8b13backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…332cbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 78c | 56.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.