Token Launches · resolved market
Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $100k in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a1261028c33b584f8fe3c723c570d719ee1a3ae985adc1dc22af8f52e4c636a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0894…d819backed No | 1c | 19,638$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 48c | 3,062$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…413ebacked No | 36c | 2,515$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…944abacked Yes | 75c | 2,094$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 32c | 1,707$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.12 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…2aabbacked Yes | 77c | 948.16$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…e8e8backed Yes | 44c | 944$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 929$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6427…e4f5backed No | 32c | 618.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc146…327dbacked Yes | 42c | 602.83$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb62d…01e8backed Yes | 68c | 584.74$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 547.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 35c | 432.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 39c | 375.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 59c | 340.1$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.35 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 335.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…9190backed Yes | 53c | 290.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 287.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 38c | 230.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 65c | 209.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…14c9backed Yes | 23c | 193.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ef…18e2backed Yes | 64c | 156.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 42c | 146.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 73c | 115.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203c…6ddcbacked Yes | 61c | 90.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…6721backed Yes | 66c | 75.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Yes | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf367…7118backed Yes | 48c | 66.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…b838backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 50c | 49.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…e8c5backed Yes | 50c | 49.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…79b1backed Yes | 47c | 44.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 58c | 34.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 39c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 38c | 27.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.