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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,298,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,298,189 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 906 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Pistons53c285,396$151,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,136.0548343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nets47c281,541$132,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,525.921,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nets49c249,124$121,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,380.6154539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pistons51c101,110$51,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,543.966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Nets47c87,842$41,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,285.6243148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pistons52c58,069$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,069.361,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pistons53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,5001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Pistons53c28,692$15,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,535.315552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pistons51c25,000$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,2502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nets47c18,810$8,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,840.6530845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b48…11ecbacked Nets49c17,179$8,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,417.71683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets47c16,705$7,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,908.594,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc324…5545backed Pistons51c13,757$7,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,740.935100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e7d…dfa4backed Nets49c13,645$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,686.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…894dbacked Nets49c13,470$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons63c13,408$8,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Nets49c13,101$6,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,379.412045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8505…a181backed Pistons51c12,876$6,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,309.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb760…c794backed Nets49c12,790$6,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,267.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd725…bd22backed Pistons51c12,531$6,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,140.195100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78bf…f0ccbacked Nets49c12,500$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,125966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aee…cd72backed Nets49c11,916$5,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,838.84785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+76.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x232d…b66fbacked Nets49c11,753$5,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,758.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7aa…367bbacked Pistons51c11,313$5,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,543.375100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2eb0…a28dbacked Nets49c11,192$5,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,484.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e3…e59abacked Pistons51c11,148$5,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd42a…2e15backed Nets49c10,869$5,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,325.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7294…41c1backed Nets49c10,850$5,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,316.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed77…c42dbacked Pistons51c10,748$5,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,266.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…cefbbacked Nets49c10,688$5,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,237.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…5741backed Pistons51c10,655$5,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,220.956100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51ec…e112backed Nets49c10,382$5,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,087.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…f3f0backed Pistons51c10,039$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.11580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+64.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Nets48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e7…f957backed Pistons51c9,917$5,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,859.335100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0041…61cebacked Pistons51c9,664$4,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,735.36683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9871…369bbacked Pistons51c9,639$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,723.116100%6 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x23b6…3eeebacked Pistons51c9,637$4,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,722.073046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe57c…018fbacked Pistons51c9,631$4,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,719.19875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3181…18ddbacked Pistons51c9,569$4,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,688.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0af1…8e59backed Pistons51c9,331$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,572.196100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5b8…d796backed Nets49c9,278$4,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,546.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+68.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf31…2c1abacked Nets49c9,157$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd12…6d68backed Nets49c9,121$4,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,469.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadbf…ff7cbacked Nets49c8,958$4,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,389.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets47c8,848$4,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,163.424,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…d204backed Nets49c8,789$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,306.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8222…035cbacked Pistons51c8,651$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,238.995100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0092…97d5backed Nets49c8,634$4,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce5f…51e7backed Nets49c8,593$4,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,210.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…9b83backed Pistons51c8,555$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,191.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18ec…e045backed Pistons51c8,495$4,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,162.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e89…0541backed Pistons51c8,347$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3181…0638backed Pistons51c8,345$4,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde03…01bebacked Pistons51c8,296$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,065.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84b9…985abacked Nets49c8,008$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c49…7f19backed Nets49c7,894$3,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.06650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca6…d765backed Pistons51c7,852$4,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77d2…22fcbacked Nets49c7,678$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,762.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba98…80b0backed Nets49c7,668$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,757.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x316d…c414backed Pistons51c7,437$3,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,644.13875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+53.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfad3…d5aabacked Pistons51c7,248$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Pistons52c7,071$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,394.2570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Pistons52c6,962$3,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,341.5434854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b16…3fbcbacked Nets49c6,912$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Pistons53c6,815$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.961,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf29c…5ba0backed Pistons51c6,783$3,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e84…9809backed Pistons51c6,675$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…f348backed Pistons51c6,538$3,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,203.62785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+72.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd953…d186backed Nets49c6,415$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,143.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb948…15b9backed Pistons51c6,360$3,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,116.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b9…25f3backed Pistons51c6,349$3,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,111.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Pistons53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons53c6,000$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8211,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd236…22f0backed Nets49c5,944$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.56850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd935…629ebacked Pistons51c5,906$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,893.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Pistons52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.2316640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xafff…49c8backed Pistons51c5,616$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe27d…cb29backed Nets49c5,603$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.47650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2e…01d8backed Pistons51c5,522$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.788100%8 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2abb…ecc3backed Pistons51c5,474$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.266100%6 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2bde…75debacked Nets49c5,336$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons52c5,308$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe96a…437bbacked Pistons51c5,291$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,592.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+62.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08fc…083ebacked Pistons52c5,272$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2deb…313ebacked Pistons51c5,194$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…d898backed Pistons51c5,063$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Pistons51c5,047$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.8229352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb000…9e48backed Pistons51c5,002$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Pistons53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.9627546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…bca3backed Pistons51c4,799$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.51887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+74.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Pistons53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.9820945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons51c4,707$2,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.432,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e3…7211backed Nets49c4,551$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+68.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaa8…20a0backed Nets49c4,104$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets47c4,035$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.336,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…bbc9backed Nets49c3,972$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.291,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Pistons53c3,910$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.765750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Pistons52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.1526648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.