TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No53c3,095$1,656 inWon+$1,439.499348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes45c2,207$987 inLost-$986.5411056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No52c1,298$678 inWon+$619.991,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3577…0e8cbacked Yes48c804.84$385 inLost-$385520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes50c758.53$380 inLost-$379.7936954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Yes44c409.09$180 inLost-$18013138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No55c310$170 inWon+$140.34,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Yes47c297.87$140 inLost-$14010943.1%47 W · 62 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes48c250$120 inLost-$12093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost-$10019950.8%101 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No50c160$80 inWon+$8022140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes50c160$80 inLost-$8039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No54c149.19$81 inWon+$68.2883158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No53c130.31$69 inWon+$61.5892058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked Yes52c115.4$60 inLost-$60.017048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No57c57.47$33 inWon+$24.948751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No53c56$30 inWon+$26.3295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Yes52c48.06$25 inLost-$24.992458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.