NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019e1474289edac7bcfef1c6e78b70c08aa67f6e10d4f1c3bbef8f5ff7937ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $653,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Pistons | 46c | 433,789$199,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234,302.75 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nets | 55c | 150,000$82,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,500 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Nets | 54c | 142,097$76,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,732.34 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 54c | 105,161$57,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,242.21 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets | 54c | 12,500$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,750 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Nets | 57c | 6,974$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.18 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Nets | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Nets | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.15 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Nets | 55c | 2,364$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.25 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 54c | 1,700$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.39 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 45c | 1,524$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 54c | 1,352$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Nets | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Nets | 55c | 985.94$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.72 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Pistons | 53c | 934.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Nets | 56c | 894.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…5930backed Pistons | 45c | 781.51$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.83 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Nets | 57c | 615.71$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 161 | 62.7%101 W · 60 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Nets | 55c | 517.51$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nets | 53c | 459.88$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.74 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pistons | 45c | 452$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.6 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Pistons | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Nets | 56c | 316.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nets | 54c | 295.28$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked Nets | 57c | 265.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Nets | 20c | 227.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Pistons | 45c | 199.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…d946backed Nets | 56c | 178.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Nets | 53c | 162.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Pistons | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Nets | 43c | 152.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons | 47c | 147.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Pistons | 45c | 136$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked Nets | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Nets | 54c | 114.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 45c | 111.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 55c | 109.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pistons | 49c | 109.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nets | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Pistons | 46c | 88.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Pistons | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Pistons | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 51c | 56.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Pistons | 62c | 55.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Pistons | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…620cbacked Nets | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Nets | 56c | 44.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked Pistons | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 67c | 38.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…b2a2backed Nets | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Nets | 56c | 33.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…ae93backed Pistons | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +51%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Pistons | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Pistons | 45c | 28.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Pistons | 45c | 27.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Nets | 56c | 26.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…a66abacked Nets | 56c | 25.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Pistons | 45c | 23.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Pistons | 46c | 21.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…e95cbacked Nets | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Pistons vs. NetsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Nets: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Nets: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 218.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 219.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-18.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-20.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-33.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-34.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-37.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-38.5)Nets won
- Spread: Pistons (-39.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.