TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x22aa…a0cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
23
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 63 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+304.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$108.98
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+199.1%+$199.15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$115
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$127.32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+271.5%+$271.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$87.88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$79.17
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$30.18
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreevabacked Marta Kostyuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Alejandro Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.