Middle East · resolved market
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d380ec546f3e60b4a69c23e1ad45693ffbb9aa0c94052a82ffa7f1512f08975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,062$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.35 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 33c | 806.46$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 74c | 672.35$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 4c | 482.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 5c | 371.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 350.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 21c | 345$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…734bbacked Yes | 15c | 344.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 73c | 268$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 70c | 242.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 21c | 201.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 19c | 142.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 76c | 137.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…7fb8backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 106.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 105.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 79c | 103.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 21c | 101.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 78c | 89.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 89.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 26c | 77.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…8b94backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 79c | 52.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…88bfbacked No | 79c | 47.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 42.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…a41abacked No | 79c | 36.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.