Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eda2be9940a0b4fafca22d6fd73a1720b6d4b17c830972def92d249279cc471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,000$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…d55ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,061$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 11,202$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 11c | 6,993$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,620$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 4,743$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 0c | 4,606$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 4,274$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 0c | 4,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 3c | 3,990$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,850$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 10c | 3,697$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,371$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 5c | 3,066$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 1c | 2,907$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 2,864$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,647$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 7c | 2,494$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 3c | 2,452$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…a5bcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,766$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 4c | 1,579$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 1,482$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,233$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,191$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 1c | 1,191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,169$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,148$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,080$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes | 7c | 1,069$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 7c | 910.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 5c | 893.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 741.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 4c | 735.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 2c | 713.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 2c | 642.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 9c | 508.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 3c | 506.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 5c | 500.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 3c | 441.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 4c | 426.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 7c | 411.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 4c | 392.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…730fbacked Yes | 5c | 368.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +220.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes | 6c | 359.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b22…acb2backed Yes | 6c | 350.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 344.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…12f6backed Yes | 7c | 326$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 4c | 292.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 8c | 269.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…9f06backed Yes | 5c | 258.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 11c | 254.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…3f5ebacked Yes | 5c | 251$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…925cbacked Yes | 6c | 250.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7b…01f7backed Yes | 12c | 233$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 7c | 224.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 5c | 219.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 189.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee9…06afbacked Yes | 7c | 171$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 8c | 152.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes | 8c | 139.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.