World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17208d7b1e5a4983811d96679a3dab1d2618c7ffe55256cad6e152ce59c0c312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 10c | 13,541$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.7 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 6,512$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.42 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 7c | 2,590$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 1c | 1,650$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 2c | 1,258$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 5c | 1,153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…ea08backed No | 10c | 850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 11c | 402.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 4c | 315.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 172 | 37.8%65 W · 107 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 10c | 235.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed No | 12c | 168.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 15c | 122.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed Yes | 80c | 79.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked No | 22c | 69.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.