World Politics · resolved market
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c83bb067c11088edd67be094d564df54a2008243ef8f4f6330906f58bc610c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 4c | 5,517$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 12c | 5,183$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…8555backed Yes | 3c | 3,843$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…1771backed Yes | 4c | 2,635$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,248$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,998$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,699$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,470$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 8c | 1,470$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…1ababacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,096$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…4623backed Yes | 10c | 1,053$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 11c | 1,013$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,010$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 8c | 990.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 974$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 10c | 952.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 11c | 850$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 12c | 744.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 8c | 720.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 10c | 700$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 685.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 9c | 634.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 593.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 10c | 479.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…49f2backed Yes | 5c | 466$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…3706backed Yes | 3c | 463$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 12c | 410.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 11c | 370$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdf…a308backed Yes | 3c | 353$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 7c | 331.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58a…25b6backed Yes | 8c | 313.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 8c | 312$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 9c | 277.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes | 11c | 261.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fd…fdfebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…51f8backed Yes | 12c | 247.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 232.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…9836backed Yes | 10c | 200.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…0834backed Yes | 6c | 186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…dda3backed Yes | 11c | 177.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…e49bbacked Yes | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 11c | 152.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…048abacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…395cbacked Yes | 11c | 149$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…9401backed Yes | 9c | 149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…4e67backed Yes | 12c | 143.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked Yes | 9c | 132.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 8c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…034bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…6703backed Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…327abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f74…c35dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…dc2cbacked Yes | 11c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 12c | 87.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…adc5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.