World Politics · resolved market
Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29bc928cd22b42007ebd1389e7142194f34ba668d1cb9f52c7e85f4bd53a09bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,676,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,676,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 14,682$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…a558backed Yes | 0c | 9,954$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 9,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…77b7backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fd…5d22backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…8d88backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…4404backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…e594backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e7…8312backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2a2abacked Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…781bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…70edbacked Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…fc0bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…bd1dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…6837backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…24a5backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…e673backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…9509backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…0431backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f02…0899backed Yes | 0c | 8,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf315…e1cebacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…062fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…6432backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…e028backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…49b9backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…973ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…4557backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…b439backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…5fffbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…e0bcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…9e9cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…5a46backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…eba3backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…fa18backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…9a72backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…341abacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…6704backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ba…2754backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1a…ebafbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…86d5backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…07dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…0f8ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…a4f7backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…08b3backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3882…6b81backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b8…796bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f89…c28fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…98a7backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…2033backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…9058backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…ac05backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…85c6backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…b7e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,636$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5120…7566backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…c76fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c871backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…522fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…ccf5backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…825bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…610abacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…7143backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbb…d4d8backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…8c9abacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…a05ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6280…0609backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…673fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…e569backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…11acbacked Yes | 0c | 4,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…0ba9backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcef…7436backed Yes | 0c | 4,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…e116backed Yes | 0c | 3,318$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.