Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df9d4b20a02de144aa9fa474a16c43ebec26213a757b5b4605038952a0fed87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,681$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 16c | 783.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.53 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 16c | 705.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 16c | 510$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 14c | 390$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 22c | 82.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 75c | 66.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 36c | 64.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 68c | 39.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…cec8backed Yes | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…5a54backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 58% or higher on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 50% and 52% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 52% and 54% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 54% and 56% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 56% and 58% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 48% on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.