Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 52% and 54% on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93d672fe3a0552ee6cae4951eeb2f6a64ababf589d8678018a8f845e96821b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 355.31$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 74c | 341.85$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 203.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed No | 70c | 179.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 21c | 153.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…87acbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 28c | 56.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 46.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…13d6backed Yes | 28c | 45.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 70c | 34.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…63b2backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 52% and 54% on January 31?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 58% or higher on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 50% and 52% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 54% and 56% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 56% and 58% on January 31?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 48% on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.