Us Politics · resolved market
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ebd7530e7ae05d362aafff51c840890f271e387a77ca4dc653e6e9e9a7c4734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 20c | 12,103$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.54 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 14c | 9,651$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 6,819$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 8c | 5,958$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 4,452$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 4c | 4,295$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,197$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…c604backed Yes | 23c | 2,043$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 2,030$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 9c | 2,001$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 15c | 1,952$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 10c | 1,800$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,647$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed Yes | 13c | 1,597$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 7c | 1,532$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 1,378$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,260$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,030$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,017$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 8c | 1,011$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 835.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…7beebacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 13c | 764.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 13c | 762.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 737$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 699.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 18c | 697$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 551.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed Yes | 16c | 527.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 461.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 12c | 438$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 398.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed Yes | 20c | 396.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 23c | 387.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 10c | 380$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 13c | 370$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 320$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…115ebacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 16c | 278.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 7c | 273$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…02cfbacked Yes | 13c | 265$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 10c | 265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 10c | 228.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 11c | 217$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 10c | 205.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 188.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 8c | 173$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 13c | 172.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 156.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…31b9backed Yes | 15c | 132.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…fff6backed Yes | 16c | 129.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 18c | 120.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 15c | 118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…02aebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…1ddcbacked Yes | 15c | 77.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? this page
- Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Yes won
- Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? No won
- Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.