Us Politics · resolved market
Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47b6bbb4abb6c8676837c05da09eb5af684f59fe17547653a9ce5d528b7d7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 5,043$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 20c | 2,898$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.36 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,787$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,663$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…2c76backed Yes | 1c | 1,136$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 859.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb923…a750backed Yes | 6c | 686.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 3c | 425$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 9c | 394.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…115ebacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 22c | 340.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 255.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 6c | 173.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 19c | 139.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…5ce4backed No | 78c | 72.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…67ccbacked Yes | 21c | 68.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…112ebacked Yes | 21c | 54.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…e8adbacked Yes | 22c | 50.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…f7f1backed Yes | 21c | 50.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…55a5backed No | 79c | 49.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…14e8backed No | 79c | 46.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…36dbbacked No | 79c | 37.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…4fe8backed No | 79c | 35.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…dbfabacked No | 79c | 34.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…c281backed No | 79c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd919…6ea5backed No | 79c | 29.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed No | 79c | 26.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…2eddbacked No | 80c | 24.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013e…bc52backed No | 79c | 23.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1135…964fbacked No | 79c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…50a7backed No | 79c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…08e4backed No | 80c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? this page
- Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Yes won
- Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? No won
- Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.