Us Politics · resolved market
Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d66699ededf2a25ed5633bf892c30b648603e3c2c6cf09b1b98d49cd0711a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 17,437$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,799$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 4,752$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 15c | 4,522$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…457dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,475$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,290$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 44c | 2,615$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.13 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…7ce9backed Yes | 3c | 2,352$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 7c | 2,001$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 12c | 1,918$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,458$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.79 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 12c | 1,402$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 36c | 1,368$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.48 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 1,309$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 5c | 1,127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 8c | 1,115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 9c | 887.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 699.49$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.94 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 10c | 630$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 5c | 584.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 22c | 546.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 80c | 501.52$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 310.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 19c | 273$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 64c | 261.76$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 5c | 250.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 64c | 230.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 9c | 194.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 188.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…c604backed Yes | 11c | 182.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 16c | 157$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 27c | 136.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 29c | 130.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 37c | 93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…91d1backed Yes | 65c | 77.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…9e3abacked No | 68c | 75.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…1eafbacked Yes | 41c | 73.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…b288backed Yes | 30c | 72.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…077abacked Yes | 35c | 61.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 47c | 57.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5fa8backed No | 68c | 49.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6729…7f9bbacked No | 73c | 41.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…5519backed No | 73c | 39.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…34e1backed Yes | 57c | 38.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d4…9fc1backed Yes | 38c | 37.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…d67ebacked Yes | 57c | 37.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…4ba1backed No | 73c | 33.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620c…46a2backed No | 63c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…0d6cbacked No | 73c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0f…9d4dbacked No | 72c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…5a9dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…226fbacked No | 72c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? this page
- Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Yes won
- Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? No won
- Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.