Us Politics · resolved market
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21055987ff62defe5d00416ec84193383b7720f5d9b43fd104022bd9160c2eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 2c | 17,881$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 10,430$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.22 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 5,714$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.96 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 3,347$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 43c | 2,925$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.63 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 2c | 2,160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 17c | 2,132$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.58 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 29c | 1,192$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.04 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 8c | 1,132$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 1,070$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 1,070$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 72c | 1,013$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.66 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 5c | 942.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 13c | 701$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 20c | 700$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 699.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.99 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 25c | 684.48$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.36 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 670.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.46 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 603.58$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.43 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed Yes | 8c | 552$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…c604backed Yes | 7c | 521.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.45 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 6c | 477.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.53 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 22c | 345$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 313.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 9c | 305$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 6c | 302.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.07 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 18c | 299.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 29c | 273$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…4fd5backed Yes | 39c | 211$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 27c | 188.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 25c | 182.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 67c | 177.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 15c | 137.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 32c | 134$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 37c | 126.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb923…a750backed Yes | 25c | 126.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…6dbcbacked Yes | 12c | 103.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +760.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 100.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…7ce9backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 16c | 89.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…972fbacked No | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? this page
- Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? No won
- Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
- Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.