Earnings · resolved market
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89a173d1eaccd405324ba8319d351cee132b2e47cf10964a6421fcc21d09320a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 13c | 3,175$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.18 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 70c | 2,130$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.37 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 15c | 2,014$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.94 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,998$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 37c | 1,500$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 13c | 936.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.54 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 27c | 758.67$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 9c | 673.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 54c | 668.31$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.78 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 12c | 650$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 559.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.17 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 10c | 500$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.36 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 17c | 400$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 299.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.17 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 16c | 293.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.93 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 13c | 293.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 13c | 285$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked No | 15c | 260.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9bb1backed No | 9c | 222$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 215$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.38 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 14c | 195.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 20c | 194.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 16c | 191.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 19c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 8c | 129.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 117.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 108.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 76c | 95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…3b68backed No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 18c | 78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 13c | 77.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 21c | 74.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 66c | 73.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0a…c34abacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…ee86backed Yes | 73c | 68.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed No | 15c | 68.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…9d2abacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…4af2backed No | 18c | 57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 32cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…728cbacked Yes | 71c | 56.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 66c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…ee9fbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…9ff2backed Yes | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.