AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5497e579644fa4124985c39c67c4e06f0a02174925c3b7b7a05fdef6dff8d62e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $454,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $522,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 11,489$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 9,999$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…de76backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 1c | 6,053$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 5,838$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 5,716$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked No | 4c | 5,245$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 5,129$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,784$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 4,608$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 4,131$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 2c | 3,222$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed No | 6c | 2,717$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked No | 5c | 2,300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 2,218$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed No | 3c | 2,190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 2c | 1,491$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…b763backed No | 1c | 1,462$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…4bbfbacked No | 1c | 1,428$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5d3dbacked No | 2c | 1,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…1b34backed No | 1c | 1,238$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…ae77backed No | 1c | 1,206$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…2ca2backed No | 1c | 1,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…51bdbacked No | 1c | 1,006$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ff…29bdbacked No | 1c | 1,001$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…1401backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf0…ab81backed No | 1c | 987.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…de3bbacked No | 1c | 970.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 4c | 931.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc299…7effbacked No | 1c | 908.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…941dbacked No | 1c | 844.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed No | 3c | 827.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…d361backed No | 1c | 810.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…8ef7backed No | 2c | 775.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 3c | 752.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 3c | 740.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…f288backed No | 1c | 736.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked No | 3c | 735.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…279bbacked No | 1c | 719.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 664.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 4c | 658.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…c4d8backed No | 3c | 398.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.