AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e3dc64c2cc5d3b4b99419f38c8e78b2841e5670787821da229e15fcb28ccbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 2c | 13,174$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.21 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 2c | 11,805$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,874$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c8b1backed Yes | 0c | 9,984$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,799$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,432$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 2,077$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,762$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,506$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 1c | 1,420$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,372$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,357$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…c971backed Yes | 5c | 1,250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 1,246$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 999.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 814.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 2c | 512.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 2c | 500.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…83dbbacked Yes | 4c | 372.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?Yes won
- Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.