Earnings · resolved market
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbebb1c8c6996bdd0783db8891f4cb764afe301c7393ae19cad4c81b0d9e25e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f58…b523backed No | 25c | 5,558$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 9c | 1,651$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 11c | 1,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 69c | 1,190$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 3c | 1,109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 936.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…bbabbacked No | 12c | 869.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 10c | 863.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 6c | 805.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 8c | 793.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…b09cbacked No | 9c | 557.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 6c | 499.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 21c | 460.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 27c | 425$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 5c | 399.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked No | 10c | 344.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 13c | 333.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 295.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 7c | 289.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 10c | 287.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 235.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 12c | 208.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 10c | 203.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed No | 11c | 183.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…04e8backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 167.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…2549backed No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 142.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3074…bae5backed No | 11c | 133.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 11c | 132.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 13c | 125.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…2a33backed No | 10c | 105.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b23…9b23backed No | 12c | 88.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 57c | 74.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 77c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.