Earnings · resolved market
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a8a47dc34123bf0ecebfa260ed1dd17cc75900dbb4b0d970fc9ed8d827ce5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c32…5f48backed No | 17c | 2,429$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +503.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 22c | 1,854$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.93 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 10c | 1,406$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.87 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 17c | 579.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.37 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 13c | 564.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.05 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed No | 20c | 508.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 442.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.05 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 12c | 335.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6ae5backed No | 11c | 179.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +795.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 11c | 152$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 105.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 12c | 100.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked No | 16c | 95.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 13c | 88.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 79.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…efaebacked Yes | 78c | 72.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 16c | 70.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7479backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…603dbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +820%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Yes | 79c | 40.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb008…0c70backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.