Music · resolved market
Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca45be38a4aa29ed19eb24a057f4f2550be394e2ca839cfa80ac5ac7b900f530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x405a…6382backed No | 72c | 1,109$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…5456backed Yes | 28c | 1,109$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 42c | 800$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…6623backed No | 69c | 722.95$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8451…a27dbacked Yes | 31c | 722.95$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 58c | 592$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.66 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 52c | 397.81$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 49c | 377.29$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 373.43$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 321$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…0b81backed Yes | 63c | 285.83$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 45c | 260$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 49c | 223$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 50c | 180.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 158.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…d1c9backed Yes | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…2d90backed Yes | 41c | 120.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…cec5backed No | 53c | 114.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 63c | 110.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +29%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…5729backed Yes | 34c | 103.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 46c | 102.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…6fcbbacked Yes | 61c | 101.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 49c | 101.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 88.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…06bbbacked Yes | 47c | 85.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79e…4126backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 47c | 64.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…8ccdbacked Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…928fbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 39c | 49.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…ffe8backed Yes | 32c | 45.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 46c | 42.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…3ef2backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…c8c1backed Yes | 40c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 27.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…d9a5backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album?this page
- Will 'Alligator Bites Never Heal' win Best Rap Album?Yes won
- Will 'The Auditorium, Vol. 1' win Best Rap Album?No won
- Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.