AI · resolved market
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c76c3130a0dfc68ce2168ceb3c7c10be5e9a2483766e2fba1e21b4a24ef0c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde4f…4ba9backed Yes | 13c | 2,612$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 79c | 1,005$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 45c | 207$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…5aeabacked No | 79c | 191.18$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 34c | 117$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 50c | 62.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 47c | 53.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 46c | 49.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 53c | 44.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2056…2dbebacked No | 55c | 38.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 49c | 36.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed No | 53c | 26.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 49c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 65c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m?this page
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 235m?Yes won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 250m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 255m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 260m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.