AI · resolved market
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6346f7041496e02989f80ee4dde2e87ab992f87317f8f8c308c34e8d6c4b9aaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1307…9908backed Yes | 7c | 1,220$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 50c | 188.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 61c | 155.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 38c | 148.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 71c | 138.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 78c | 119$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 70c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 24c | 78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…ffd8backed No | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 23c | 70.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 17c | 62.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 22c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 76c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 78c | 45.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 60c | 41.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 69c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x15a8…9829backed No | 65c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 78c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m?this page
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 235m?Yes won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 250m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 255m?No won
- Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 260m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.