TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d8b…1fb1backed Yes0c29,037$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0490%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes0c15,535$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8008…190ebacked Yes7c11,163$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8773…a036backed Yes1c10,783$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes1c9,332$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f77…37c0backed Yes0c5,609$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…1ab2backed Yes0c5,497$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c5…0064backed Yes0c5,322$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-61.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes21c5,227$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.819532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes28c4,266$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.856917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes11c4,226$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.434211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…3c33backed Yes1c4,075$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd08…3f24backed Yes1c3,758$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43b…2a91backed Yes0c3,612$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4352…c794backed Yes1c3,488$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c47…c5a1backed Yes2c3,236$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes6c3,130$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2723321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee8…3b5ebacked Yes1c2,801$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…69ecbacked Yes3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c2,025$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.941231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes6c1,964$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes15c1,960$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.3610544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No80c1,932$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.4617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes8c1,888$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15111421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No50c1,873$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.62334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,609$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.95490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes3c1,313$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.045646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes9c1,266$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.34151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8caf…3545backed Yes1c1,238$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes11c1,143$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.212936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes2c1,114$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.68644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e90…1c09backed No60c1,075$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.44837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked No53c1,053$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.311376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5fcd…c2acbacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9032639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…e479backed Yes5c913.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes8c812.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046a…bb9dbacked Yes7c701.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No76c682.8$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.474721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5413635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No75c596.57$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2516350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes2c578.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes9c571.83$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.465925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c517.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3119133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes9c500.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.626431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes19c500$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9419031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce1…a25dbacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11012240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b6…886ebacked Yes9c449.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes8c433.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.812611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3634…2fefbacked Yes7c405.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes25c403.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.955837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes16c387.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5311825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes3c379.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.482416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926c…b11fbacked Yes11c357.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x800d…628ebacked Yes33c336.96$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed No61c325.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7312030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…5e74backed Yes10c320$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…e7c8backed No62c304.19$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes30c279.72$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1411924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c262.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.21,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes25c231.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.33330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c229.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…f673backed Yes9c225$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+242.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a5…c111backed Yes5c223$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.952615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6716…95cdbacked Yes6c211.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fb…7f7bbacked No64c210.94$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.94933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No71c204$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.071435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e5…2a2ebacked Yes50c199.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked Yes7c195$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes42c184.27$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.627022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No57c184$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.122343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+97.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3a…7c5dbacked Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed No56c157.9$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6245…2ac1backed Yes38c157$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.071637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa214…0e25backed Yes27c151.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c135.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes38c133.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c131.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No76c128$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6b…b451backed Yes14c110.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x628e…4580backed Yes43c98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a80…d7fbbacked Yes32c92.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes20c90.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed Yes43c86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked No60c85.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.664734%16 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eff…8897backed Yes19c81.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No75c81.33$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.332552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes28c81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.681030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No73c75.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…d677backed No51c75.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+118.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed Yes23c73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed No63c72.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9315054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.