Movies · resolved market
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c605bc7f119e8b30e0189baa1878b16fce4bb19e826e6e05c7aa753ac670847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 11c | 19,518$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.98 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 4c | 8,515$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.91 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 6,395$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,821$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 6c | 3,531$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 5c | 3,521$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4d20backed Yes | 1c | 2,389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,174$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 1,908$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,838$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,737$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,726$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.29 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 1,365$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 6c | 1,299$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 14c | 1,202$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,167$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 891.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 6c | 856.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 2c | 830.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…fef5backed Yes | 20c | 731.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +151%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 641.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 13c | 620$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 604.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 588.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 69c | 579.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.98 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 9c | 561.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 3c | 525.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 3c | 499.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…86cbbacked Yes | 3c | 468.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…c814backed Yes | 5c | 456.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 2c | 449.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…3545backed Yes | 3c | 412.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…1aabbacked Yes | 5c | 392.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 5c | 389.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 388.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…4d82backed Yes | 6c | 337.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 4c | 293.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 80c | 280.51$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 274.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 22c | 249.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 227.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…17d7backed Yes | 10c | 219.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 67c | 216$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…8f4ebacked Yes | 6c | 205.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 10c | 192.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 192.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 190.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 12c | 179.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 166.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 13c | 146.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 106.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 62c | 95.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 86.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Yes | 18c | 85.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f9…b1cbbacked Yes | 13c | 84.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 74c | 30.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 74c | 28.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…87b8backed No | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…fa05backed No | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…a11dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?this page
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?Yes won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.