Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd4ca58bc03c7c085060c971a1c5a327aceca6929d406990e58d575df9c5604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,768$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,149$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.77 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 61c | 3,516$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 66c | 2,274$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.69 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 11c | 2,242$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 38c | 2,028$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.51 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 826.33$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 499.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 307$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 47c | 290.09$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 35c | 280.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 55c | 272.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed No | 76c | 240$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 185.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…cc83backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…5c57backed Yes | 44c | 114.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…613cbacked Yes | 23c | 112.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 47c | 99.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 45c | 78.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 73.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…de3cbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 39.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes | 54c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $$6,900 (HIGH) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (LOW) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.