Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbf21beeceace01fdaab5177b81444a5d24d0ed38d6adaf48189eda51fb311a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 68c | 2,400$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.68 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,268$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…5c57backed Yes | 24c | 958.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 900$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f7…087cbacked Yes | 30c | 668.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 77c | 500$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 465.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…7062backed No | 79c | 359.62$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 228.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 214.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 197.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…e527backed Yes | 8c | 131.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 108.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 101$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…ea39backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 75c | 94.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 86.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 62.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…0ae6backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…0057backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 47.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 57c | 44.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 29c | 35.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $$6,900 (HIGH) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (LOW) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.