TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes35c8,876$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.71,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No75c8,124$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.124148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes30c5,959$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.181,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No61c2,355$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.691758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No53c2,350$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.4960229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd93d…500cbacked Yes3c1,342$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes2c1,087$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked Yes41c946.33$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes39c741.26$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.844117.1%7 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…f36fbacked Yes6c650$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes31c507.26$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x29de…5c1bbacked No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8277…ec76backed Yes69c483.93$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No46c474.3$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.334146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes47c470.25$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…faafbacked No46c461.32$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No45c423.3$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.712250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes3c391.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c336.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.02924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes43c329$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8635151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes50c313.11$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5426237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c267$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.274168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes43c251.74$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2522129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c251.25$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c245.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.441,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No61c235.5$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.02450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No55c218.8$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.956150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c211.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3515947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab20…5c57backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes51c195.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.673148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5972backed No62c195$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No51c193.4$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.615335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c181.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4319934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes31c175.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7427429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0179…5ff2backed Yes55c168.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.983961.5%24 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes59c158.13$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3510442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7747…7cf2backed No66c149.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No15c145$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No46c140$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca97…5409backed No61c117.75$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.71450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No51c114.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.515131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3da0backed No62c106.3$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.562828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…4292backed Yes17c102.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff0…1429backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a0…63a4backed Yes19c99.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+126.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c55…8e08backed No54c92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f41…cc83backed Yes27c91.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No50c86.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes27c86.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.528536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…4adabacked Yes48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2121…2c78backed No52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f7…80d2backed Yes27c79.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes28c77.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes36c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7110749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8e…5716backed Yes35c65.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf924…435bbacked Yes54c64.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa0…be2dbacked No58c60.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes41c57.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-87.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No68c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7823245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74eb…c78abacked No74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.051369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd77d…55a4backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked Yes47c52.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.824465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f2…25b0backed No48c51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes41c49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.026870.6%48 W · 20 L+12.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No59c46.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.728239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a3a…c380backed No29c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+99.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No35c41.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.227068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc450…2cbfbacked No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ae…372fbacked Yes43c37.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed Yes39c36.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No37c35.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x470a…4f45backed Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed No76c34.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes41c33.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.712236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8b…88bcbacked No59c30.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9a44…d282backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfc…da6dbacked No59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2796…e282backed No43c27.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes49c25.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.645844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes46c23.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a1c…2f25backed Yes63c22.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes73c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ab…9a54backed Yes53c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f2…b7bcbacked No56c17.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No65c16.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.813342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.