TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc12a…dc73backed No80c7,556$6,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.624148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes45c6,940$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.661,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No17c4,000$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.624100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+200.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No57c3,105$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.747071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes39c2,546$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.2860229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes29c2,179$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.781637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c2,109$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.7226237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c2,074$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.8419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes29c2,031$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.9713941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No64c1,699$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.171,78349%874 W · 909 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked Yes35c1,349$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No77c1,308$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.2435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes42c1,057$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.291414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed No77c1,011$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked No58c1,005$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad8…6be0backed No57c890.24$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.375550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes34c824.98$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.4999038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No75c609.34$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.452688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x714a…e775backed Yes19c600$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.971127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1742871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c585.11$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2717049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes29c574.93$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.994117.1%7 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed Yes15c501.69$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+374.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes46c500$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf924…435bbacked No58c471.5$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes11c422.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.534168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59db…1d13backed No73c400$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1071593.3%14 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.33per pick60cpaid+56.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No27c400$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2912250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c391.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0522129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82ca…faafbacked No51c369.32$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No59c366.12$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1616248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c334.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c289.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.124418.2%8 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+128.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes46c286.56$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.396150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…ed82backed No27c266.78$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+190.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes61c260$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…8b5ebacked Yes41c246.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c244.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.951,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c225$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.53450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No79c213.34$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.154465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c201.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.111060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+146.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0408…f5e5backed Yes20c197.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a37…d223backed No49c194.34$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe51d…b450backed Yes46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506e…8433backed No54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No58c170.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x595a…bca8backed No67c164.56$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No74c161.2$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.915850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cd…9740backed Yes78c161$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes48c148.7$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+95.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes9c143$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.787726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes38c127.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.514146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes34c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+116.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff56…eea1backed Yes18c113.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes15c109.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.482369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed No74c104.58$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf734…7382backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8527338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6e…d2cebacked No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+233.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-75.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc200…c6b3backed Yes55c99.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No59c97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4151…7283backed No74c94.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes12c87.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No78c87.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.081764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c83.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.562975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No66c83.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9110442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No15c80$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6819419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…178fbacked Yes32c78.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No27c71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.671030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes76c66.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8d…fe4ebacked No78c63.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes41c63.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.853148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes37c58.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.558536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8608…6eaebacked Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18d…8a38backed Yes35c56.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes33c54.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.122231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…5462backed Yes30c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No54c46.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.473672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2f29…c7cdbacked Yes43c42.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes45c40.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3254…351fbacked No69c37.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.574100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.443838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c1…3d1ebacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed Yes47c28.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No57c26.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50b…e2d5backed No80c24.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3da0backed No57c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.892828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8851…3f95backed Yes79c20.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3730%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No70c20.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.