Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf192cf78382f1e7121fe62334a77610716e5132d6196722606cb7d9fcb81253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 59c | 7,072$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.56 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 19c | 6,021$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,542$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 2,700$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.24 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 25c | 2,663$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.52 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 73c | 1,401$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.87 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 30c | 756.64$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 13c | 664.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 354.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed No | 72c | 342.68$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…cc83backed Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Yes | 6c | 296.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 61c | 263.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 46c | 231.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 41c | 213.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 212$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…b7a8backed Yes | 15c | 200.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…ed82backed No | 46c | 172.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 56c | 136$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 22c | 89.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…6eb3backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 31c | 47.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30c…8373backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…dcabbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…3da0backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee48…79a1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3254…351fbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…15e4backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…b538backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903a…1c39backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…fbafbacked Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 64c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $$6,900 (HIGH) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (LOW) in February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.