World Politics · resolved market
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb790205b14222a8e7e57660b4d19db1c9b564fb0c49d12ebd02718d29808ea6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 6c | 1,035$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 1c | 803.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…8269backed Yes | 23c | 609.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b0f3backed Yes | 13c | 459.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed Yes | 12c | 313.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 74c | 260.9$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 20c | 244.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…8716backed Yes | 16c | 240.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 17c | 214.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 154.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…6358backed Yes | 14c | 142.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 17c | 121.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 110.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 59.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 23c | 55.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Yes | 70c | 48.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 65c | 37.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 80c | 36.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3070…7606backed Yes | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?this page
- Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?Yes won
- Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the People Power Party win 6 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.