World Politics · resolved market
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc209c9b910e852f33d2cefe17698dcd0ca8825170772b05ba6c4b1eea953cd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6764…49c4backed Yes | 24c | 10,588$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 66c | 3,376$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.61 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,688$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…b342backed Yes | 51c | 2,588$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…a208backed Yes | 18c | 2,082$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 14c | 1,227$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 15c | 976.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322b…8743backed No | 80c | 815.64$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 16c | 542.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 48c | 362.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes | 23c | 350$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 346.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 340$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 27c | 289.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked Yes | 12c | 288.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…91debacked Yes | 21c | 278.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 268.54$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 15c | 262.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 49c | 226.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 214.74$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 181.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 33c | 143.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked Yes | 21c | 116.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 12c | 116.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 112.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…f875backed Yes | 76c | 99.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 25c | 98.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…29edbacked Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 33c | 93.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 23c | 85.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 78.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 75c | 76.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 63c | 75.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 68.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 65.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…1c09backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 58.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…23dfbacked No | 80c | 58.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 51.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…09dabacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…d41bbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 64c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?this page
- Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.