World Politics · resolved market
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4234c9b78692c06a14c4aded938ab6b670eea4fef11170290e0a93e28f31ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 12c | 3,280$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.54 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 3,204$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.81 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 15c | 2,314$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.83 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 1,813$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.04 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 30c | 1,517$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 15c | 1,132$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes | 76c | 714.58$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 79c | 652.39$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 16c | 597.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 59c | 572.73$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 514.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.59 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6c00backed No | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 13c | 462$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 72c | 415.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…b493backed Yes | 61c | 411.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed No | 49c | 353.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…efefbacked Yes | 80c | 351.94$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 15c | 348.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…f0a0backed Yes | 80c | 332$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 23c | 322.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed No | 17c | 290$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…e7f6backed No | 17c | 260.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 257.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…5d96backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 14c | 239.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 51c | 224.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 65c | 220$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 206.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 205.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 62c | 201.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…f4f6backed Yes | 51c | 197.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 174.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 35c | 146.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 40c | 132.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 127.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 68c | 119.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2a10backed Yes | 78c | 115.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 32c | 104$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 17c | 95.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 70c | 85.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 30c | 62.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 80c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…ef1cbacked Yes | 64c | 46.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 46.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…ccb4backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…080abacked Yes | 76c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 79c | 34.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 34.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 80c | 30.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…cd50backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b36abacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 45c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 39c | 26.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…f6cabacked Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…7f00backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ae…9095backed No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…b51fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?this page
- Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.