World Politics · resolved market
Will Liberal Alliance win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2adc16507e200a822d0b871ac96a6c9bbf410d9866cd6fa6a69d82f2113f782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 9c | 972.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 7c | 949.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…f43bbacked Yes | 6c | 731.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 4c | 505.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 2c | 488.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…d015backed Yes | 24c | 454.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…9ff4backed Yes | 10c | 443.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…b82bbacked Yes | 12c | 375.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 6c | 357.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 11c | 318.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…61a2backed Yes | 10c | 310.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 14c | 275.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 20c | 250.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 239.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…d8cdbacked Yes | 12c | 221.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…0c7fbacked Yes | 7c | 203.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…d367backed Yes | 10c | 194.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…746dbacked Yes | 6c | 175.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 174.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 75c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 20c | 152.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 9c | 143.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe98…64b0backed Yes | 14c | 140.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…db5bbacked Yes | 10c | 133.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 104.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 18c | 94.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 21c | 83.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 53.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 77c | 36.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 78c | 31.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liberal Alliance win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Danish People’s Party win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will Naleraq win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Venstre win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.