World Politics · resolved market
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdda4bb5199a58a816054646d7d45cc3ffd513d21756e92392bdd28ee6496470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 27,462$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.16 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 3c | 20,586$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.59 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,831$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.03 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 21c | 15,282$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.32 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…2c51backed Yes | 1c | 5,541$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed Yes | 2c | 5,262$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 79c | 4,564$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.76 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,500$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +239.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,274$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 1c | 3,138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 73c | 2,217$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.66 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920f…ba6fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,200$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…9e29backed Yes | 2c | 1,924$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,312$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…b90abacked Yes | 3c | 1,271$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +317%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,256$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,054$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…8372backed Yes | 72c | 909.05$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…2c1fbacked Yes | 2c | 895.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…213bbacked Yes | 2c | 735.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…24a5backed Yes | 3c | 708.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 50c | 609.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.06 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…4165backed Yes | 4c | 560.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…7e7cbacked Yes | 2c | 543.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…36abbacked Yes | 2c | 538.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 66c | 500$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Yes | 4c | 355.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 15c | 324$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 15c | 319$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 15c | 314$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 267.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 34c | 191.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 178.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0f71backed Yes | 33c | 150.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 122.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb2…bc01backed Yes | 25c | 119.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…8a5abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a2…58fdbacked Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 17c | 70.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…5f97backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…0c3ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 75c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 72c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…caf4backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.