World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23688e026e556f282a404d570324bd7c2e5c7acfca4ea2fa17a75a5b5c7ec635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 0c | 5,181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 5c | 3,547$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 2c | 3,141$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 4c | 3,114$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,898$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,872$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 3c | 1,991$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 2c | 1,777$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,553$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,407$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 14c | 921.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 4c | 815.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 15c | 777$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 636.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 13c | 177.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…169dbacked Yes | 14c | 141.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.