World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c67c1caab44d83e7ddcc41b88c86927ce16fa92dab87cf5f422d38aa6f9939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d79…28bdbacked No | 19c | 5,702$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.98 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +239.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked No | 12c | 2,380$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed No | 16c | 1,745$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 28c | 1,724$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 37c | 1,153$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.98 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…8de1backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 13c | 777.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 72c | 682.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 4c | 555.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 5c | 345.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 29c | 240.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 40c | 169.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…9614backed Yes | 75c | 168.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 139.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…56aebacked Yes | 20c | 105.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…7e7cbacked Yes | 77c | 89.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 15c | 66.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 20c | 53.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…0c3ebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.