World Politics · resolved market
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050b59f939be86fe3bd368f6244cd21967d614f4e43e42f069e03e864629bfcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 6c | 7,912$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.58 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,807$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,782$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 39c | 3,560$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.64 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed Yes | 11c | 2,840$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 11c | 1,832$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…8807backed Yes | 4c | 1,375$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,190$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 60c | 1,000$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.01 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…ee64backed Yes | 2c | 904.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516f…ff40backed Yes | 3c | 759.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…e932backed Yes | 17c | 749$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 17c | 667.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…4165backed Yes | 13c | 610.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked No | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…cc02backed Yes | 9c | 558.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…2c8bbacked Yes | 5c | 537.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 12c | 283.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 58c | 183.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 75c | 169.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 159.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 154.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 112.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 14c | 84.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 21c | 57.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 29c | 51.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…fb78backed No | 75c | 43.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 29c | 36.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…fb97backed No | 67c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.