World Politics · resolved market
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7bbd51c1b62b1037ce3f43c0f140c9f5892b6c6257859cc90db3eefb09fbb2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x342d…9e93backed Yes | 6c | 1,919$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c6…485cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,823$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…12fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,669$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1f…2ffbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,643$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…13cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,409$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…903abacked Yes | 7c | 1,296$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…deedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,243$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…ca97backed Yes | 2c | 1,195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…dc65backed Yes | 7c | 1,160$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…f159backed Yes | 6c | 1,145$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fc…45e4backed Yes | 7c | 1,063$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…784abacked Yes | 1c | 1,038$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…5b10backed Yes | 7c | 985$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 967.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…b716backed Yes | 6c | 894$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…3161backed Yes | 7c | 861$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 2c | 825.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…5c94backed Yes | 6c | 807$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9893…5115backed Yes | 7c | 797$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…1844backed Yes | 7c | 711$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…5db4backed Yes | 7c | 606$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef8b…afc2backed Yes | 7c | 603$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…67a3backed Yes | 7c | 599$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…f7f5backed Yes | 7c | 477$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 461.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…c0cdbacked Yes | 7c | 456$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f1…ce38backed Yes | 7c | 436$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…d583backed Yes | 7c | 427$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…bbddbacked Yes | 6c | 413$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…d293backed Yes | 6c | 348$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1f…e389backed Yes | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…e48ebacked Yes | 6c | 279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…b62abacked Yes | 7c | 278$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…ee71backed Yes | 6c | 259$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 226.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 15c | 67.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.