Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c057979cac577c7a19ba3950ae5e29fea5a2bdb7528c0eec4785e126b0052c5

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $241,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $205,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,033 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0121…f722backed Yes	9c	29,276$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,749.57	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…28d6backed Yes	5c	27,600$1,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,411.2	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	3c	23,783$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.94	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd437…ba37backed Yes	3c	20,061$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.58	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c00…6edfbacked Yes	4c	16,000$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	4c	8,154$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.37	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	4c	5,266$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…99a6backed Yes	7c	4,625$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.96	72	26.4%19 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…0e8dbacked Yes	4c	2,631$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-34%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…1cbebacked Yes	5c	2,353$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	4c	2,311$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee4…f46abacked Yes	5c	2,077$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.79	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec5…6b45backed Yes	4c	1,588$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes	4c	1,252$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7cf…ef30backed Yes	3c	1,195$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	3c	1,181$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes	4c	1,169$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	109	36.7%40 W · 69 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes	4c	1,081$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes	14c	738.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	423	32.9%139 W · 284 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	672.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes	4c	618.66$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8320…e302backed Yes	4c	562.31$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.77	301	37.2%112 W · 189 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	3c	555$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-6.3wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes	22c	516.99$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.89	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+28%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed Yes	4c	503.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…1499backed Yes	4c	481.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes	6c	415.07$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	409.18$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4af…c998backed Yes	8c	400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	48cpaid	-67%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes	3c	395$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe270…eab5backed Yes	4c	392.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	241	36.9%89 W · 152 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…6aa4backed Yes	4c	361.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	360.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	4c	340$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	8c	334.14$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d5…79ddbacked Yes	28c	323.5$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.26	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x052a…d30cbacked Yes	3c	317.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb890…786cbacked Yes	4c	289.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e88…0c70backed Yes	4c	283.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	5c	278.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes	10c	241.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	299	16.7%50 W · 249 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…3b1abacked Yes	21c	114$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes	19c	82.8$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	669	32.1%215 W · 454 L	+16.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	28c	66.81$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	79c	22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event