Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2514dd7ad6a2fda9c0ae9b89a3be7531a32988c855ab6ae2dae91cd54bea305f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,250 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	4c	33,375$1,351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,351.24	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9070…e32cbacked Yes	2c	4,102$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.77	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x233e…02c3backed Yes	5c	2,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	4c	1,827$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.91	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,745$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	4c	1,475$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,297$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	4c	1,210$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.95	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x003b…8a28backed Yes	4c	1,163$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	5c	1,145$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.88	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	3c	1,095$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.11	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked Yes	4c	1,049$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8503…abddbacked Yes	4c	1,034$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f8…8290backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6593…445ebacked Yes	5c	751.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	4c	680.12$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	4c	679.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.65	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	4c	652.73$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…f26fbacked Yes	4c	422.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	2c	417.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	3c	411.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	311.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event