TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes3c1,240$36 inLost-$36.188838.2%339 W · 549 L+37.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes4c1,100$46 inLost-$46.1113122.1%29 W · 102 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes2c1,050$21 inLost-$20.64,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf809…b391backed Yes4c1,016$37 inLost-$36.711127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes6c856.06$53 inLost-$53.185527.3%15 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c783.02$37 inLost-$36.561674.2%7 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c639.49$22 inLost-$21.577799.6%75 W · 704 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes5c553.71$30 inLost-$29.921266.3%8 W · 118 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes5c537.53$28 inLost-$28.4487837.2%327 W · 551 L-41.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes9c528.02$46 inLost-$46.0618139.8%72 W · 109 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb2d…070dbacked Yes10c480.15$48 inLost-$48.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes6c296.6$17 inLost-$17.1240515.3%62 W · 343 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c291.21$11 inLost-$10.542937.5%22 W · 271 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes4c272.92$11 inLost-$11.3612025%30 W · 90 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c49…3e89backed Yes9c229.22$20 inLost-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes7c192.82$13 inLost-$13.551315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes6c184.14$11 inLost-$10.7743835.8%157 W · 281 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes6c162.29$10 inLost-$10.3292038.5%354 W · 566 L-21.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31f8…716dbacked Yes8c159.99$13 inLost-$12.81714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Yes9c127.66$12 inLost-$1247935.1%168 W · 311 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.